Welcome and Happy Thursday!

PE firms track hiring velocity and expansion signals to spot breakout companies before they see financials. LPs should do the same with GPs. This post explains why fundraising velocity matters - and at the end, I’ll give you a step-by-step method to track it yourself.

All good PE firms try to identify breakout companies early. But they don’t do this by waiting for the audited financials.

Instead, they track hiring velocity. They monitor expansion signals. They watch customer traction and market behavior.

They’d love to buy in exclusivity. But most of the time, they’re simply trying to build conviction before the process starts. Once the auction begins, prior knowledge is the differentiator.

The same logic applies to GP selection.

But as LPs we are still waiting for the financials.

A typical LP market mapping looks something like this:

You screen Preqin or Pitchbook for managers with good performance.

You build a longlist. You rank it. You start at the top.

However, they closed their latest fund two years ago. They’re already preparing the next raise - limited mostly to pre-existing relationships.

Here’s what likely happened:

By the time the performance data looks “clean,” you are often five or more years into the vehicle’s life.

And the GP is already two steps ahead in the fundraising cycle.

Preqin is excellent for identifying managers worth knowing.

But it is, by definition, backward-looking.

So, if you want to increase your chances of allocation access, you need earlier signals.

So what’s the LP version of tracking hiring momentum or warehouse expansion?

Two simple things:

Or as I like to call it: Fundraising velocity.

Not quartile rankings.

Not consultant summaries.

Actual capital allocation decisions made by LPs who have done the diligence and seen the portfolio from the inside.

When a GP goes to market, they’re juggling:

If they close in 6 months instead of 18-24, something is working.

If they increase fund size meaningfully - and still close fast - LPs are leaning in.

This isn’t theoretical validation.

It’s capital being committed by investors who:

That’s real-time signal.

In January 2026, BV Investment Partners announced:

That’s not performance data.

That’s fundraising velocity.

By 2031, you’ll start to have an idea how it performed. But by tracking this signal you already know:

That’s real-time capital validation.

This isn’t magic.

Fundraising speed alone isn't quality. But track it across multiple fundraises, and the pattern becomes hard to dismiss.

There is another element to this method: Some of the most sought-after firms have no publicly available performance data.

Their LP base doesn’t require disclosure. They don’t show up cleanly in databases.

Screening tools won’t surface them.

But their fundraising activity?

That’s visible.

You can track fundraising momentum even when returns aren’t public.

And as a filter for “Should I take the first meeting?”

It works.

Just like hiring velocity doesn’t tell you everything about a company - but it’s predictive enough to act on.

And the worst case? If the manager isn’t a fit, you’ve spent one hour, you give it a D in your CRM and don’t worry about it again.

Fund I → II or II → III transitions are inflection points.

Performance data is limited. Momentum shows up first in fundraising.

If a GP closed their last fund in 3 months at 2x size, their next raise will likely be competitive.

Build the relationship early.

Looking at 40 European lower mid-market buyout funds?

Start with the ones showing fundraising momentum.

The market is already validating them.

Most LPs already notice this - informally.

You remember who closed quickly. You recall who doubled fund size. You hear who struggled to get to hard cap.

I did this for 10 years.

Sometimes I read press releases. Sometimes it just lived in memory. It’s better than nothing - but I’m sure I had many blind spots.

That’s why we built Navigator.

Not to replace performance analysis.

But to systematically surface forward-looking signals - fundraising velocity, fund size shifts, timing compression - so momentum becomes visible before performance data fully matures.

Here's how to use fundraising velocity as a discovery signal:

1. Track fund size progression Compare each fund to the previous one. Look for meaningful upsizing (30%+), not just inflation adjustments.

2. Monitor close timelines Note first close to final close duration. Sub-12 months is fast. 18+ months is slow. Context matters (market conditions, strategy), but the pattern is what counts.

3. Look for compression + growth together A fund that closes faster and larger is the strongest signal. One without the other is less predictive.

4. Track across multiple fundraises One fast raise could be luck or market timing. Consistent velocity across Fund II, III, and IV is signal.

5. Use it as a filter, not a decision This gets you to the first meeting. Everything else - strategy fit, team quality, portfolio construction, track record - is for you to evaluate. But this gets you in early.

PE firms don't wait for audited financials to start tracking companies. They use hiring velocity, expansion signals, and market traction to spot winners early.

LPs should do the same with GPs.

Fundraising velocity - how fast a GP closed and how much they upsized - is real-time validation from investors who've seen the portfolio from the inside. It's not perfect. But it's predictive. And it surfaces managers before performance data exists or becomes public.

Preqin tells you who performed. Fundraising velocity tells you who has momentum.

If allocation access matters, momentum comes first.

Founder's Corner: The Guilt and Gift of Getting Away

My wife and I escaped the Copenhagen cold last week and took our 14-month-old to Tenerife. Sun, sand, and a toddler discovering the ocean for the first time.

Here's the thing about being a founder: you're never truly away from the business. Even as I'm building sandcastles, I'm half-thinking about our new product features, or that enterprise deal in the pipeline, or how to articulate our positioning better.

It's hard to justify taking a week off. To yourself, to your partners, to that voice in your head that says “you could be working on x” while you're on a beach. The founder guilt is real.

But here's what I already knew - and was reminded of again: getting away from daily operations isn't indulgence - it's important infrastructure.

When you're in the weeds every day, you lose perspective. You're optimizing locally instead of thinking globally. Some of my best product insights and strategic clarity have come when I'm physically removed from the office. My brain needs the space to process, to connect dots that daily operations obscure.

And watching my son experience sand between his toes for the first time, laughing at waves, completely present in the moment - that filled me with something I can only describe as renewed energy. A reminder of what actually matters.

I came back to Copenhagen with a clearer head and a fuller tank than I've had in months.

If you are building something long-term - whether as a founder, an LP or a parent - stepping back isn’t a luxury.

A long-term project isn't a sprint - it's a marathon. And marathons aren't won by those who burn out - they're won by whoever's still running after 42 kilometers.